Calculates the pretest probability over time, assuming the individual does not develop symptoms, by taking into account the distribution of incubation periods (defined as the time from exposure to symptom onset).

adjust_pretest(pre0, asympt, days = 14, mu = 1.63, sigma = 0.5)

pre0 | Initial pretest probability (on day of exposure) |
---|---|

asympt | The proportion of positive patients who would be expected not to ever develop symptoms (true asymptomatic patients). |

days | Days since exposure for calculation range |

mu | The mean of a lognormal distribution that approximates the incubation period for COVID-19. E.g. 1.63 (see reference). |

sigma | The standard deviation of a lognormal distribution that approximates the incubation period for COVID-19. E.g. 0.5 (see reference). |

pretest probability by day (time series)

See McAloon et al. https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/8/e039652/