Every day, a certain number of people are expected to show symptoms, based on the incubation period. This would typically lead to further investigation and ongoing suspicion of an outbreak. This function calculates the proportion of individuals on a given day that would not be expected to have developed symptoms yet. So if no one has developed symptoms, this proportion of people could still have undetected COVID-19.
prop_remaining(t, asympt, mu = 1.63, sigma = 0.5)
The proportion of positive patients who would be expected not to ever develop symptoms (true asymptomatic patients).
The mean of a lognormal distribution that approximates the incubation period for COVID-19. E.g. 1.63 (see reference).
The standard deviation of a lognormal distribution that approximates the incubation period for COVID-19. E.g. 0.5 (see reference).
Proportion who would not be expected to show symptoms yet
See McAloon et al. https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/8/e039652/