Calculate a time series of unit-wide probability following exposure

To calculate the probability that any asymptomatic person has COVID-19, this function treats each person/exposure as independent events and calculates the probability time series using the individuals time series from individual_probability().

unit_probability(test_day, pre0, sens, spec, asympt, days, mu, sigma, n)

Arguments

test_day	Day of PCR test (days since exposure)
pre0	Pre-test probability of person on day of exposure
sens	A vector of sensitivities by day since exposure
spec	The specificity of the PCR test
asympt	The proportion of infected patients expected to remain asymptomatic throughout the course of infection
days	Days since exposure for calculation range
mu	The mean of a lognormal distribution that approximates the incubation period for COVID-19. E.g. 1.63 (see reference).
sigma	The standard deviation of a lognormal distribution that approximates the incubation period for COVID-19. E.g. 0.5 (see reference).
n	Number of exposed individuals

Value

The probability of an event with the specified probability, after n repetitions