To calculate the probability that any asymptomatic person has COVID-19, this function treats each person/exposure as independent events and calculates the probability time series using the individuals time series from individual_probability().

unit_probability(test_day, pre0, sens, spec, asympt, days, mu, sigma, n)

Arguments

test_day Day of PCR test (days since exposure) Pre-test probability of person on day of exposure A vector of sensitivities by day since exposure The specificity of the PCR test The proportion of infected patients expected to remain asymptomatic throughout the course of infection Days since exposure for calculation range The mean of a lognormal distribution that approximates the incubation period for COVID-19. E.g. 1.63 (see reference). The standard deviation of a lognormal distribution that approximates the incubation period for COVID-19. E.g. 0.5 (see reference). Number of exposed individuals

Value

The probability of an event with the specified probability, after n repetitions