To calculate the probability that any asymptomatic person has COVID-19, this function treats each person/exposure as independent events and calculates the probability time series using the individuals time series from individual_probability().

unit_probability(test_day, pre0, sens, spec, asympt, days, mu, sigma, n)

Arguments

test_day

Day of PCR test (days since exposure)

pre0

Pre-test probability of person on day of exposure

sens

A vector of sensitivities by day since exposure

spec

The specificity of the PCR test

asympt

The proportion of infected patients expected to remain asymptomatic throughout the course of infection

days

Days since exposure for calculation range

mu

The mean of a lognormal distribution that approximates the incubation period for COVID-19. E.g. 1.63 (see reference).

sigma

The standard deviation of a lognormal distribution that approximates the incubation period for COVID-19. E.g. 0.5 (see reference).

n

Number of exposed individuals

Value

The probability of an event with the specified probability, after n repetitions